The Official E -Employment Report of the US has returned to its tradition in recent years of baffling the whole world with a strong reading creation reading when the cooling of the economy is a fact and the debate revolves around a speedy recession accelerated by the aggressive policies of Donald Trump. According to the breakdown published this Friday by the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the Department of Labor, in March 228,000 non-agricultural positions were created, practically double the 110,000-130,000 expected by analysts. The first conclusion seems clear and fits the extracted from the latest growth readings of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the US economy comes in good health to Trump’s commercial precipice.
The other most observed reports of the report have been more consistent with the story that had been prevailing recently: the labor market is moderating after the post-pandemic warm-in-law (Labor, salary increases) was missing, but it is not yet succumbing. The unemployment rate has risen up to 4.2% (due to the rebound of the active population) and the average income per hour will slow down to a still high 3.8% year -on -year (it is estimated that to converge towards the inflation target of 2% this data must fall to 3.5%).
The ‘surprising’ figure 228,000 non -agricultural payrolls is located above the monthly average of 158,000 positions of the previous 12 months. In March, employment increases occurred in the sectors of health care, social assistance and transport and storage. Employment also increased in retail trade, partly as a consequence of the return of workers after a strike. The employment in the federal administration decreased, according to the holders derived from the ‘mission’ of Elon Musk’s doge, CEO of Tesla, although the fall of 4,000 positions is notoriously less than that of February (11,000).
The only ‘stain’ in the report, the unemployment rate, has its explanation. As noted above, the rebound of one tenth was due to an increase of 232,000 people in the active population, which exceeded the healthy increase of 201,000 people in the household employment survey (it should Deportations will remain under control of the growth of the active population and, by extension, the unemployment rate.
All these numbers further complicate the work of the US Federal Reserve. When the pressures for the Central Bank to lower interest rates in the face of the threat to the growth of Trump’s measures, this still resistant labor market and the ‘stubbornness’ inflation data that continue to complicate their roadmap complicate greatly. More if you take into account that Trump initiatives such as restricting immigration can create more inflation by draining labor. Despite the colorful surprise in the payroll data, the operators have continued to discount four casualties of the Fed this year and 50% of the first of them in May. The trauma created by Trump’s ‘tariff’ is dulling the rest of the usual Wall Street catalysts.
“The remarkable increase in jobs is good news in the midst of the climbing of the World Trade War, since it shows that the labor market is maintained in good condition despite the ballast of federal employment cuts promoted by Doge. We hope that progress in employment remains healthy, although slow, this year, assuming, of course, that the income from the tariffs announced in the early Economy, avoiding a recession, “says the strata Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics.
“Given the growing risk of intensified commercial conflict and the fall in economic confidence, companies will be reluctant Consumers, which have recently been reflected in a remarkable slowdown in consumption spending.
However, they need from the German bank, the reference period for the Employment Report is the salary period that includes on the 12th of each month. Therefore, current data covers the first half of March. President Trump did not announce the latest drastic tariff increases until April 2. Therefore, it will take some time for adverse effects to be reflected in employment data.
Some analysts expect that the loss of jobs related to Doge could exceed half a million by the end of the year, since the cuts will extend to government contractors, universities, non -profit organizations and other adjacent sectors. Doge’s efforts amounted to more than 280,000 planned dismissals for federal workers and contractors during the last two months, according to the Challenger firm, Gray & Christmas.
Tariffs could also cause more pronounced dismissals in the private sector. The Stellantis car, owner of brands such as RAM and Chrysler, announced the temporary dismissal of about 900 workers in the affected plants.
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