While most of the world trembles at the new commercial earthquake caused by Donald Trump’s tariffs, a country in North Africa emerges as one of the potential winners of the conflict: Morocco. In the midst of a cascade of tariffs that affect Europe, Asia and much of Africa, Rabat has managed to keep a relatively favorable treatment by the United States, with a 10%tariff, the minimum set by the US administration. This apparent concession is not lower: compared to 20% imposed on the European Union, 30% to Algeria and 28% to Tunisia, Morocco has become a tariff stability island amid the global chaos. The good diplomatic relations between the US and the kingdom of Morocco and the commercial deficit presented by the African country with the greatest power in the world have been able to be the key to this ‘favor treatment’ that can mark a before and after for the Moroccan economy.

This margin of commercial advantage, combined with its strategic location, can generate a renewed international interest in turning Morocco into an industrial and manufacturing pole for companies that seek to reduce their exposure to markets more punished by US tariffs. In turn, this generates the risk that part of the industry (the little that is left) that remains in the Mediterranean (Spain, Italy, Portugal …) European seeks shelter in the African country, given the granting of this ‘privilege’ tariff to Morocco. The truth is that Rabat and Washington are historic allies, although Donald Trump does not seem too sensitive when respecting old friendships, everything indicates that Morocco could be one of the great winners of this new global reconfiguration that faces trade.

For Morocco, this American indirect support can be a golden opportunity. While neighboring countries such as Algeria and Tunisia have been beaten with tariffs of 30% and 28%, respectively, Morocco retains a 10% tariff (the lowest of all) thanks to the commercial deficit it has with the US (buys from Donald Trump’s country more than he sells). Thus, Rabat escapes the hardest reprisals, consolidating himself as a ‘neutral’ partner in an increasingly polarized commercial war.

Although the environment is uncertain and difficult to anticipate, experts agree that the course is marked. “In the medium and long term, there are companies that will seek to restructure their manufacture and supply chain to countries to which the US has imposed less tariffs. Much will depend on whether the tariffs are durable or merely used as a negotiation tool,” said Paul Amberg, American partner of Baker McKenzie, in statements to the newspaper El Mundo. Amberg, who advises multinationals since Madrid in foreign trade matters, confirms a remarkable rebound for consultations in specialized offices.

The questions accumulate in legal signatures: how to comply with the new regulations, how much it will cost and, above all, how to reduce the impact of tariffs. “A lot of restlessness is to say little,” summarizes Amberg. A notable part of companies will study how to reduce the costs and distortions generated by tariffs, so that less punished countries can be an option.

These types of statements have already generated some controversy in the Moroccan press. The Morocco World News newspaper has published a column by alarmist to the Spanish press (two specific newspapers) for publishing two information in which the new tariff advantage of Morocco is relieved can put a part of Spanish exports to the US at risk, since the African economy stands as a more ‘cheap’ substitute which reduces even more costs in relative terms. The commercial coup not only comforts access to the US market, but also the logic of international supply chains. Is there intention in this low tariff established by the US? It is impossible to respond to this, although the relationship between Morocco and the USA can be analyzed.

USA and Morocco, an old relationship

The relationship between Morocco and the US is based on a historical, strategic and geopolitical basis that continues to consolidate over time. As Rama Yade, director of the Atlantic Council, “Morocco, is one of the oldest allies in the United States”, having been one of the first countries to recognize US independence in 1777. That link was formalized with the peace and friendship treaty of 1786, even in force. Since then, Rabat has proven to be a reliable partner in key issues, such as the fight against international terrorism, and was appointed main ally outside NATO in 2004.

Bilateral cooperation has intensified on different fronts. In December 2020, former president Donald Trump reaffirmed that alliance by recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara, a gesture of high symbolic and political value that has not yet been reversed by the administration of Joe Biden. In addition, Morocco has managed to maintain a balanced diplomatic position in delicate stages such as the conflict between Israel and Palestine, demonstrating interlocution capacity without breaking ties with the West or with the Arab world. “Under the reign of Mohamed VI, the kingdom has established a future role for itself that goes far beyond the Middle East,” says Yade.

Not only tariffs. One of the strongest points in Morocco is its human capital. SGF Global emphasizes that “the country has a young, dynamic and well -trained workforce with respect to the rest of Africa, especially in key sectors such as telecommunications, software and engineering.” In addition, multilingualism is an exceptional asset: French, Arabic, English and Spanish coexist in professional environments, allowing companies to operate globally fluently from the same base.

Morocco as an industrial attraction pole

As the Global SGF report points out, “Morocco has positioned itself as a hidden jewel of ‘Nearshoring’, thanks to a unique combination of qualified talent, political stability and competitive costs.” The rise of ‘Nearshoring’, that is, the relocation of operations in countries close to consumption centers, clearly plays in favor of the Alauito kingdom. Morocco is just a few hours of flight from the main European capitals and operates in similar time slots, which facilitates logistics, operational supervision and real -time collaboration. This proximity makes more sense now than global trade is being redrawn by political decisions and geostrategic tensions. Now, with tariffs that are half of those that the EU will endure, it would not be strange that companies begin to call the Puerto de Morocco strongly to produce there to arrive with greater simplicity to the American market.

The country’s impulse in technology and digitalization is also attracting industries that need innovative environments. Morocco has multiplied its investment in technological hubs and digital services, becoming an emerging pole for companies that require high technological adaptability environments. “The country’s approach in innovation has created a perfect ecosystem for companies that seek to outsource advanced services,” says the Global SGF report.

But beyond technology, Morocco also wants to become a power in the production of physical goods. The combination of low labor costs, tax incentives, and now this tariff advantage over Europe and its African neighbors, is aroused by the interest of manufacturing industries that want to export directly to the United States without excessive penalties.

Before the US tariff battery, Morocco had already been growing as an economy that based its model on the attraction of foreign investment. SGF Global also highlights the “enormous cultural adaptability of Moroccan talent”, something essential for global companies that seek teams capable of understanding and responding to different management styles. This cultural advantage, forged through decades of commercial relations with Europe, the Middle East and Africa, allows Morocco to become a connection platform between continents. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides that the country’s growth accelerate up to 3.9% this year, as published.

Political stability and growth

The political stability of the country, together with reforms oriented to economic growth, complete the attractiveness. Morocco has been proactive in offering attractive conditions to foreign investment: special economic zones, favorable fiscal regimes, more lax environmental regulation and a clear commitment to international openness. In this context, Trump’s trade war, although it seems contradictory, could act as a catalyst to accelerate a transformation already underway. Although tariffs always reduce international trade and generate distortions and inefficiencies, the least relative damage generated on Morocco can create what is known as ‘trade deviation’ that ends up favoring the African country.

The movements of the companies will not be from one day to another, since these decisions require large investments, in addition to generating certain clashes with the societies and institutions of the countries they abandon. If tariffs are maintained over time, as it seems likely, the pressure to look for viable alternatives to China, Southeast Asia or even Europe will only grow. Morocco, with its combination of logistics, human, fiscal and now tariff advantages (in regard to trade with the US), could become the new Mediterranean industrial workshop.

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Morocco becomes the great winner of tariffs against Spain and arouses the interest of the industry