Seville expects a strong unemployment reduction this year and a 10% rate in 2026

The Sevillian economy continues on the positive path marked since the middle of last year. It is the main conclusion of the XXIV Economic Barometer of the College of Economists and the Loyola University, which anticipates that the Sevillian economy will present a moderate expansion, with a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.4% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. Good data is also reflected in the labor market, where an estimated growth of employment of 4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 is expected. “These figures together with the remarkable reduction of the unemployment rate, which could decrease to 11.8% in 2025 and 10.6% in 2026, reflect a continuity in the generation of job opportunities,” explained María del Carmen Delgado, executive director of the Economic Barometer of Seville and director of the Department of Economics of the Loyola University.

Thus, the gap between the unemployment rates planned for Seville and Spain would be 1.5 points at the end of this year and 1.2 in 2026. With the aspiration for the first time in almost two decades to lower the two figures if the trend is maintained in the medium term. With unemployment levels around 4.5 points below the Andalusian average, with the forecast of reaching 15.2% this year and 14.4 that comes.

As for inflation, the director of the report has been more cautious. “The projections point to a new growth of inflation, which is expected to reach 2.8% in 2025 and can decrease slightly to 2.5% in 2026.

The barometer

The economic barometer of Seville was born from the collaboration between the Professional College of Economists of Seville and the University Loyola. This is the twenty -fourth number of this collaboration, corresponding to the economic situation of the first quarter of 2025. Together with the executive director of the barometer, Francisco J. Tato Jiménez, dean of the College of Economists; and Rafael Peral Sorroche, responsible for institutions, groups and agreements of Caja Rural del Sur.

As a novelty in this report, the economic indicators of the province of Seville for 2025 are updated. The report incorporates the consumption of electricity and credit indicators to the private sector and mortgage market as a reflection of business dynamism and consumer confidence, while vehicle registration and decomposition of overnight are excluded.

Among the main trends detected, the creation of commercial companies in Seville has shown an unstable evolution in 2024, with a start of 2025 that presents figures below the year of reference.

The consumption of electricity has fluctuated throughout the last year, with a fall in December that could anticipate an economic slowdown in 2025. Regarding the business confidence rate, although it closed 2024 with records higher than those of the last quarter of the previous year, the beginning of 2025 shows a slight decrease in Seville compared to the previous month.

In the foreign sector, exports experienced a historical maximum in the second quarter of 2024, followed by a fall in the third quarter and a rebound in the room. Imports have also increased, but to a lesser extent, which has led to an improvement in the commercial balance.

In the labor market, the province reached historical figures of occupation in the fourth quarter of 2024, with an unemployment rate of 12.5%, the lowest of the historical series. Social security affiliation has followed a growing trend, with maximum records in February 2025.

Other indicators

In the financial sector, credits to the private sector have shown a slight recovery after the deceleration of 2022 and 2023, while the mortgage market maintains a volatile trend with a partial recovery at the end of 2024.

As for prices, inflation has shown a decreasing trend since 2023, with values ​​below 3% since July 2024. Despite a slight rebound in the last quarter of 2024, the consumption price index (CPI) remains controlled, closing January 2025 with an increase of 2.4%.

In 2024, overnight stays in Andalusia and Seville showed stability, with a start of the year higher than the reference period, except in July and August in Andalusia. Seville presented better records compared to the Autonomous Community. However, 2025 began with a fall in overnight stays in both regions, being more notable in Andalusia, because Seville continues to exceed the figures with respect to those of the base year.

In general, economic indicators reflect a positive evolution in employment and foreign trade, although with signs of deceleration in some key sectors, which raises a moderate growth scenario for the province in 2025.

International and national situation

The global economy faces risks derived from the increase in protectionism and geopolitical instability, which affects trust and growth. The relationship between the United States and Ukraine has deteriorated with the freezing of military aid. In addition, the US has raised tariffs to Chinese, Canadian and Mexican products, which has intensified the risk of a global protectionist escalation. Europe faces political challenges after elections in Germany, while the ECB has reduced interest rates in an attempt to consolidate economic stability. China shows signs of recovery, although it remains exposed to commercial uncertainty, while Japan and India have disparate growth dynamics.

In this context, Spain and Andalusia show resilience with sustained growth, improvement of employment and controlled inflation. However, the international environment remains a determining factor that could condition economic evolution in the medium term.

Bes index

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the BES index reached 117.5 in Seville and 112.7 in Andalusia, reflecting greater dynamism in the province and a slowdown in the community. In Seville, they highlighted the increase in exports and overnight stays, while the consumption of electricity and the creation of commercial companies decreased.

For the first quarter of 2025, Seville anticipates an index of 108.4, pointing out a loss of dynamism, while Andalusia foresees a recovery with 113.6. The deceleration in Seville is due to the fall in the creation of commercial companies, although the advance does not include certain key indicators.

WhatsAppFacebookTwitterLinkedinBeloudBluesky

Seville expects a strong unemployment reduction this year and a 10% rate in 2026