The US needed a positive news in the macroeconomic plane and this Wednesday has arrived. Inflation gave in February a (very) small respite to the first power of the planet, relaxing the fears that were installed after the hot data of January. Fears that joined the explosive combination of economic deterioration and more inflationary pressures derived from Donald Trump’s policies. With the front of the ‘quiet’ inflation for the moment, despite remains closer to 3% than of the objective of 2%, economists and investors will continue to focus on the debate of a potential recession if the White House tenant still does not moderate its agenda.
In February, the consumer price index (CPI) registered an advance of 2.8% year -on -year, two tenths less than in January and one below what analysts foresee. For its part, the underlying CPI, which excludes energy and food, reflected a reading of 3.1% year -on -year, also two tenths less than in January and one less than expected by the consensus of experts. In both metrics, the intermensual figure of 0.2% compared to 0.3% shows this relief.
In the usual game review, the house rose 0.3% monthly in February, which represents almost half of the increase in the general CPI. This increase in housing was partially compensated by a 4% decrease in air and 1% rates in gasoline. Despite this decrease in gasoline, the energy component rose 0.2% during the month, since there were rebounds in electricity and natural gas. Food also increased in February, 0.2%, since the food index outside the home rose 0.4%. The food index in the home remained unchanged during the month.
While Wednesday’s report offers some relief, inflation fears persist. With the implementation of tariffs by Trump, the prices of various products, from food to clothing, rise, testing the resilience of consumers and the economy in general. In a speech against Congress last week, Trump described the price increase that tariffs are expected to cause a small disturbance that the country should be able to overcome. However, the uncertainty about its commercial policy has caused a recent collapse of stock markets and has revived the aforementioned fears of a recession.
At the bottom of the scenario is a federal reserve that hopes patiently until there is more clarity about the administration and the trajectory of inflation. In the short term, the meeting next week without going any further, the central bank is expected to leave the interest rates without touching. Facing the end of the year, the operators have been discounting these days up to three type cuts. Not long ago that bets passed through a single cut and with doubts, but Trump’s hard agenda has widen expectations. The February inflation fact, in any case, supports them.
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